BEGIN:VCALENDAR VERSION:2.0 PRODID:-//TYPO3/NONSGML Calendar Base (cal) V1.11.1//EN METHOD:PUBLISH BEGIN:VEVENT UID:$5&xs2 DTSTAMP:20191030T133610 DTSTART:20200108T151500Z DTEND:20200108T170000Z CATEGORIES:Systemwissenschaftliches Kolloquium SUMMARY:A discrete model for the impact of sylvatic yellow fever on the howler monkeys (Alouatta guariba clamitans) in Southern Brazil DESCRIPTION:Referenten: Prof. Dr. Diomar C. Mistro & Prof. Dr. Luiz A. Rodrigues |\r\n\r\nThe sylvatic yellow fever is an endemic infectious disease in the north and center-west and part of the northeast region of Brasil. It affects mosquitoes (Haemagogus) and nonhuman primates such as the howler monkeys (Alouatta guariba clamitans). A recent outbreak of this infectious disease in the São Paulo state was the cause of a great concern to the Brazilian Ministry for Health. The howler monkeys are considered a sentinel for early detection of yellow fever because of their high sensitivity and mortality rate due to this infection. In this work\, cellular automata models are proposed to analyze the dynamics of a population of howler monkeys stricken with periodic outbreaks of yellow fever.\r\n\r\nUniversität Santa Maria RS\, Brasilien LOCATION:Gebäude 93, Raum E07 ORGANIZER;CN="Institut für Umweltsystemforschung": END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:$5&xs2 DTSTAMP:20191126T065741 DTSTART:20200115T151500Z DTEND:20200115T170000Z CATEGORIES:Systemwissenschaftliches Kolloquium SUMMARY:Welfare effects of fisheries regulation DESCRIPTION:Referent: Prof. Dr. Quaas |\r\n\r\nFisheries are a prime example for natural common pool resources that are prone to overuse in the absence of proper regulation. However\, also under conditions of open access the possibility to use these resources generates economic welfare. Especially small-scale scale fisheries\, which often operate under conditions of restricted open access\, provide a substantial contribution to food security and coastal livelihoods. These contributions to economic welfare can be quantified as consumer and producer surplus. Here we study how regulation of fisheries would influence welfare in the short and long run. We look at two regulation approaches. First\, we study technical regulation of of fishing gear and fishing practices\, which influences harvesting efficiency. We show that the different components of welfare change in the same direction with harvesting efficiency\, and that the overall effect is ambiguous. If\, and only if\, initial efficiency is low enough so that there is no maximum sustainable yield (MSY) overfishing in steady state\, an improvement of harvesting efficiency increases welfare both in the long run. Second\, we study rights-based fishery management\, where fishers get individual fishing rights. We show that the welfare effect may be ambiguous\, and especially the poor resource users may be worse off despite the overall efficiency gains of rights-based management. \r\n\r\nDeutsches Zentrum für integrative Biodiversitätsforschung\, Halle-Jena-Leipzig LOCATION:Gebäude 93, Raum E07 ORGANIZER;CN="Institut für Umweltsystemforschung": END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:$5&xs2 DTSTAMP:20191030T133940 DTSTART:20200122T151500Z DTEND:20200122T170000Z CATEGORIES:Systemwissenschaftliches Kolloquium SUMMARY:Neutral theory and host-parasite interactions - tackling the complexity of the microbiome with di_erent modelling approaches DESCRIPTION:Dr. Michael Sieber |\r\n\r\nAll animals and plants\, from unicellular protists to blue whales\, are inhabited by diverse communities of microbial organisms. Those microbial lodgers constitute a host's microbiome and they can have fundamental roles in host functioning and health. This makes understanding the processes that shape the composition of host-associated microbial communities crucial. I will present insights from two di_erent approaches to study the tremendous complexity of the microbiome. Firstly\, the application of a neutral model to microbiome data from di_erent host species highlights the importance of random population dynamics and dispersal for the assembly of host-associated communities. Discrepancies between the neutral model and the data allows for identifying potentially important members of the microbiome\, but I will also point out limitations of this approach. Secondly\, I will show how a virus can mediate the curious\, experimentally observed interaction between two key members of the microbiome of the freshwater polyp Hydra vulgaris. These two examples illustrate how both stochastic population dynamics and more deterministic processes\, such as host-parasite interactions\, together shape host-associated communities.\r\n\r\nMax Planck Institute for Evolutionary Biology\, Plon\, Germany LOCATION:Gebäude 93, Raum E07 ORGANIZER;CN="Institut für Umweltsystemforschung": END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:$5&xs2 DTSTAMP:20191030T134546 DTSTART:20200129T151500Z DTEND:20200129T170000Z CATEGORIES:Systemwissenschaftliches Kolloquium SUMMARY:Emergence and transitions in infectious disease dynamics DESCRIPTION:Referentin: Prof. Dr. Mirjam Kretzschmar |\r\n\r\nRecent outbreaks of infectious diseases such as Ebola in West Africa\, Q fever in the Netherlands\, Zika Virus in South America\, but also the HIV pandemic\, SARS\, and pandemic influenza have shown that globalized society is at increasing risk of outbreaks of emerging pathogens. Mathematical models of infectious diseases can help us understand how various factors influencing transmission of pathogens interact and what are the key parameters in determining whether or not an outbreak can occur\, and how an ongoing outbreak can best be controlled. These models are non-linear systems\, which display threshold behavior\, with shifts between dynamical regimes when threshold values are crossed. Complex dynamics can arise depending on the assumptions about transmission incorporated into the model. I will give an introduction to infectious disease modelling with a focus on the types of dynamics that are observed in epidemiological data and mathematical models. I will explain concepts as the basic reproduction number R0\, and I will discuss key parameters in infectious diseases that lead to outbreaks\, epidemic cycles\, and possibly large changes in prevalence with small changes in transmission rates. These dynamics will be discussed in the light of implications for infectious disease control and public health.\r\n\r\nJulius Center for Health Sciences and Primary Care University Medical Center Utrecht\, Utrecht University & Centre for Infectious Disease Control National Institute of Public Health and The Environment (RIVM) Bilthoven\, The Netherlands LOCATION:Gebäude 93, Raum E07 ORGANIZER;CN="Institut für Umweltsystemforschung": END:VEVENT BEGIN:VEVENT UID:$5&xs2 DTSTAMP:20191030T135035 DTSTART:20200205T151500Z DTEND:20200205T170000Z CATEGORIES:Systemwissenschaftliches Kolloquium SUMMARY:Eco(toxico)logical modeling for the assessment of environmental risks of plant protection products DESCRIPTION:Referent: Dr. Andreas Focks |\r\n\r\nMathematical and mechanistic modelling is used as a tool in numerous applications in engineering and society. The unambiguous formulation of otherwise vaguely defined ‘mental’ models\, the capacity of models for sensitivity and uncertainty analyses\, and the precise nature of model results\, make modelling approaches very valuable in situations where systems-level knowledge experiences boundaries when it remains formulated in a non-formal language way. In the field of the risk assessment of pesticides\, mathematical models have a long tradition of being used to analyse emissions and fate of chemical molecules in the environment\, whereas the mathematical modelling of effects of pesticide compounds on non-target species remained for decades on the level of simple statistical regression models. In the last years\, however\, the development and use of mechanistic eco(toxico)logical models in the regulatory environmental risk assessment of pesticides and plant protection products developed rapidly\, because regulatory agencies start to discover the advantages of mechanistic modelling. The presentation will start with a short flashlight on the current environmental risk assessment system for pesticides in the EU\, to describe then the development of toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TKTD) models towards now being the first regulatory accepted mechanistic effect modelling approach. The presentation will then outline nature and properties of additional mechanistic effect modelling approaches\, such as population models\, to end with drawing a vision of an integrated environmental risk assessment system for pesticides\, where fate and effect models are combined within consistent representations of agricultural landscapes. \r\n\r\nUniversity Wageningen - Netherlands LOCATION:Gebäude 93, Raum E07 ORGANIZER;CN="Institut für Umweltsystemforschung": END:VEVENT END:VCALENDAR