Why do people often react too late or not at all despite precise flood warnings? A new study by Prof. Dr. Britta Höllermann from the Institute of Geography at Osnabrück University and Dr. Anna Heidenreich from the Weizenbaum Institute in Berlin investigates this question. Their article, which has been published by Springer Nature, has now also been referred to by the UNDRR - the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction.
Using the example of the flood disaster in the Ahr valley in summer 2021, the two scientists show that technical forecasts are not the only decisive factor in whether an impending disaster is recognized as such.
The analysis makes it clear that many of those affected base their decisions on previous experiences, such as less severe floods or warnings that did not have serious consequences. According to the researchers, this orientation towards the familiar can lead to a false sense of security in extreme situations.
In addition, there is a strong trust in existing protective measures and in the intervention of state institutions, which leads people to underestimate risks and ignore their own options for action.
In their study, the authors present the so-called "Uncertainty Lens Framework", which shows how subjective perceptions of uncertainty shape decisions at an individual and societal level.
"It is not uncertainty itself that is the problem, but how we deal with it," explains Prof. Dr. Britta Höllermann from Osnabrück University. "If warnings do not convey an idea of how serious an event can actually become, they remain abstract for many people and do not lead to consistent action."
The study therefore calls for more open and comprehensible communication of uncertainties in flood prevention and in the event of a disaster. "Only if residual risks are clearly identified and responsibilities are made transparent can society and individuals respond better to increasingly frequent and unpredictable extreme events," says Höllermann.
Further information for editorial offices:
Prof. Dr. Britta Höllermann, Osnabrück University
Institute of Geography
E-mail: britta.hoellermann@uni-osnabrueck.de
