05. Februar 16:15 - 18:00Eco(toxico)logical modeling for the assessment of environmental risks of plant protection products
Ort: Gebäude 93, Raum E07
Veranstalter: Institut für Umweltsystemforschung
Kategorie: Systemwissenschaftliches Kolloquium
Referent: Dr. Andreas Focks |
Mathematical and mechanistic modelling is used as a tool in numerous applications in engineering and society. The unambiguous formulation of otherwise vaguely defined ‘mental’ models, the capacity of models for sensitivity and uncertainty analyses, and the precise nature of model results, make modelling approaches very valuable in situations where systems-level knowledge experiences boundaries when it remains formulated in a non-formal language way. In the field of the risk assessment of pesticides, mathematical models have a long tradition of being used to analyse emissions and fate of chemical molecules in the environment, whereas the mathematical modelling of effects of pesticide compounds on non-target species remained for decades on the level of simple statistical regression models. In the last years, however, the development and use of mechanistic eco(toxico)logical models in the regulatory environmental risk assessment of pesticides and plant protection products developed rapidly, because regulatory agencies start to discover the advantages of mechanistic modelling. The presentation will start with a short flashlight on the current environmental risk assessment system for pesticides in the EU, to describe then the development of toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TKTD) models towards now being the first regulatory accepted mechanistic effect modelling approach. The presentation will then outline nature and properties of additional mechanistic effect modelling approaches, such as population models, to end with drawing a vision of an integrated environmental risk assessment system for pesticides, where fate and effect models are combined within consistent representations of agricultural landscapes.
University Wageningen - Netherlands