Guest speaker is Prof. (emeritus) Dan Hiebert from the University of British Columbia, who will present insights from two recent research projects under the title “Immigration policy for a shrinking world: A case study of demography and immigration in Canada.”
Abstract:
In this presentation I will set the context by situating Canada within a general overview of global demographic trends. We are entering a new era when global fertility will soon decline below the replacement level. Demographic momentum will mean that the global population continues to increase but at a diminishing rate. This process is highly uneven and the world is fragmented between areas of high population growth vs those characterized by stasis or even decline. Everywhere, populations are aging. With a total fertility rate of 1,25, Canada is in the lowest quintile of countries in terms of global fertility and will begin to experience negative natural increase by the end of this decade – a pattern that is projected to persist for at least 50 years. Canada has increasingly turned to immigration as a means of achieving both population and economic growth. However, this policy has been built on the twin assumptions of an endless supply of potential immigrants and a domestic population that is open to significant cultural change (in the 2021 census, non-permanent residents, immigrants, and the children of immigrants, accounted for 44 percent of the entire Canadian population). How will the supply of immigrants change in the new era of global demography? Can a high rate of immigration be sustained in an age of increasing political polarization, and at a time when public confidence in Canada’s immigration system has eroded? What are the challenges for Canada’s demographic future given these changing global and domestic circumstances? I will conclude by offering some policy recommendations for Canada as it seeks to engage, productively, with a shrinking world.
See here for more dates of the Geographical Colloquium.
