Download: FFVT Briefing Note (PDF, only available in German)
In 2025, three laws or regulations were passed in the EU and Ukraine that will shape the refugee situation from Ukraine from now on. Firstly, on 13 June, the Council of the European Union extended temporary protection for Ukrainians once again, this time for five years until 4 March 2027 (European Council 2025a). Secondly, on 17 September, the Council approved a recommendation by the European Commission that temporary protection should generally expire and be replaced by Member States with other national residence statuses, such as those available to skilled workers, labourers, students or family members, while at the same time promoting sustainable return (European Council 2025b). In addition, on 26 August, Ukraine lifted the restrictions on travel for young men between the ages of 16 and 22 that had been imposed under martial law, allowing them to leave the country (Kyiv Independent 2025). In November, the German Chancellor announced that Ukrainians would no longer be eligible for citizen's income retroactively from April 2025 and also called on the Ukrainian President to prevent young men from leaving the country (Der Spiegel 2025). Meanwhile, the fighting continues unabated. Russia is gradually destroying and occupying further areas in eastern Ukraine (ISW 2025) and intensifying its attacks on critical infrastructure, with the aim of making parts of Ukraine uninhabitable and bringing the civilian population to its knees (The Economist 2025).
This policy brief examines the following questions: (1) How has the exodus from Ukraine developed over the past twelve months, in particular how many young men have sought protection in the EU following the recent change in Ukrainian law? (2) what the prospects are for Ukrainians to stay or return, (3) how the EU's latest recommendation could affect Ukrainians, and (4) how the integration of Ukrainians in Germany has developed.
